Why Beijing Fears The US 'Playing The Russian Card'

March 21, 2025 by James Gorrie

Today, a significant part of China’s geopolitical calculus rests on its allegiance with Russia, a critical but by no means unbreakable ally. The war in Ukraine, now grinding through its third year, has exposed vulnerabilities in this partnership, as has the potential peace deal being brokered by the Trump administration.

A Global Strategy

In fact, the United States “playing the Russian card” should be viewed not just as an effort to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine but as a global strategy to undermine Beijing’s influence with Moscow and other countries worldwide. This bold move flips the script on the Nixon-era triangulation. Beginning in the early 1970s, the United States countered the Russian-led Soviet Union’s global influence by engaging China diplomatically and economically, which served to counterbalance the United States’ top global adversary.

The idea has merit. Russia’s economy is battered, its military stretched thin, and its global isolation is growing. Western sanctions have choked its access to technology and markets, leaving it desperate for a lifeline.

Furthermore, Moscow is now the weaker partner in its relations with Beijing, reliant on China for trade and diplomatic cover. If the United States flips Russia, China loses a counterweight to Western pressure, leaving it more isolated against a unified NATO and its Indo–Pacific allies.

Making Beijing Even More Vulnerable

As for China, it finds itself in a vulnerable position as well. Its dependence on Russia runs deep, especially for resources. For example, Russia supplies more than 15 percent of China’s crude oil imports and vast amounts of natural gas via pipelines like Power of Siberia. China also sees Russia’s freshwater reserves—Lake Baikal alone holds 20 percent of the world’s unfrozen freshwater—as a hedge against its own water scarcity.

Losing or even reducing access to Russia’s resources, including its arable land and timber, would put huge pressure on China to find alternatives at a much higher cost. But that could well be the outcome of a U.S.–Russia rapprochement.

A One-Sided Relationship

What’s more, trade with China—$240 billion in 2023—keeps Moscow afloat, but it’s a one-sided relationship. China buys cheap Russian energy while selling finished goods, leaving Russia a junior partner. Moscow is not comfortable and even resents playing second fiddle to Beijing.

On the other hand, the United States could offer a sweeter deal: access to global markets, investment in infrastructure, and a tech lifeline. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, who thrives on pragmatism, the allure of rebuilding Russia’s economy might outweigh ideological loyalty to Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The potential for such a development is more than hypothetical. A negotiated settlement in Ukraine where Russia retains some territorial gains but withdraws from most of Ukraine could be framed as a “win” for domestic consumption. In return, the United States could push NATO to pull back from its easternmost footprint—perhaps even reverting to pre-1997 boundaries, as Russia has long demanded, or a planned return to prior agreed-upon limits along with an enforced neutrality for non-NATO nations bordering Russia, like Ukraine.

A New US–Russia Détente?

Such an arrangement wouldn’t dismantle NATO but could ease Moscow’s paranoia about encirclement, making a pivot away from China palatable. It’s a low-cost concession for the United States: NATO’s core remains intact, and Russia’s ties to China diminish.

Of course, it’s not yet a reality. Putin and Russia’s elite are wary of U.S./NATO promises. Plus, China could counter with sweeter deals—more loans, more weapons tech. But that remains to be seen.

The Ukraine leadership is also a wild card. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is proving himself to be less predictable and more capricious than the Trump administration anticipated. What’s more, Western European NATO members are all less inclined to seek a peace settlement with Putin.

Therefore, part of the Trump administration’s effort is to force Ukraine to the peace table, which is happening as I write this, and convince NATO members such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany to accept a peace deal. The United States must also find a way to meet Russia’s conditions while not losing Ukraine’s agreement to a cease-fire. Both should be achievable, but time will tell.

The US Has Better Cards Than China

However, as far as Moscow is concerned, Washington has better cards to play than Beijing in terms of market size, technological edge, and the relief of a powerful NATO backing off Russia’s border countries—all of those appeal to Moscow.

At the same time, such a deal would add salt to the wound of the Chinese regime, which already finds itself in the Trump administration’s crosshairs concerning the Panama Canal, rising trade tariffs, and the accelerating American economic decoupling from China.

At the moment, Trump is showing both a carrot and a stick to Putin. At the same time, China’s shrinking economy and growing diplomatic isolation from U.S. actions become a greater negative going forward.

This isn’t just a hypothetical for the Chinese regime—it’s a nightmare scenario that threatens its strategic depth, resource security, and regional dominance.

The stakes are high, and China has plenty to lose.