Trump’s Arctic Policy Is No Folly

January 7, 2025 by Janet Levy

On Sunday, December 22, President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his desire for America to take control of Greenland, saying it is an “absolute necessity.” The very next day, Greenland’s prime minister, Mute Egede, said the autonomous island, part of the Danish kingdom, was not for sale. But Trump’s plan—like that of William H. Seward, who, as secretary of state, oversaw the purchase of Alaska from Russia in 1867—is not without tremendous geopolitical advantage to America.

It’s all about gaining greater American control over the Arctic, where Russia and China are cooperating to build a strong presence. Fears that such cooperation will extend to include North Korea and Iran are not unfounded. Many pundits believe that Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have aligned themselves into a new Axis of Evil. According to Merrill Matthews of the Institute for Policy Innovation, they are in “expansionist mode,” seeking “much more land and power” and “coordinating their efforts to benefit each country’s goals.”

Image by Grok.

However, the immediate worries for America are from the Sino-Russian efforts, which have significantly expanded over the past decade. China’s northernmost point is 13 degrees of latitude from the Arctic Circle—that’s 1,443 km or roughly 900 miles. Yet, in 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping audaciously proclaimed China a “near-Arctic state,” launched an “Arctic strategy,” and resolved to make his country a “polar power.”

Cut to 2024. In July, four Chinese and Russian strategic bombers, all taking off for the first time from an airbase in northeast Russia, flew over the Chukchi and Bering Seas. In October, Chinese and Russian coast guard fleets conducted their first joint patrol of the Arctic. These forays followed joint naval exercises in the Bering Strait in 2022 and 2023. The two countries also signed a memorandum of understanding on maritime law enforcement in 2023.

In addition to defense, Sino-Russian projects in the Arctic include scientific research and procurement of natural gas and uranium. Russian gas exports to China are at an all-time high. Most of all, though, China wants to increase the use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) for shipping. These routes can cut shipping time from China to Europe by 50% or more. China’s policymakers call these passages the Polar Silk Route (PSR), part of its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

China has also found a firm foothold in Greenland. The island clamors for independence from Denmark, and its cash-strapped autonomous government has welcomed Chinese investment, chiefly in ice-breaking and mining rare earth elements. In 2023, Chinese investment in Greenland stood at $264.5 billion.

Two recent reports, one from the U.S. Department of Defense and the other from the Rand Corporation, highlight serious Arctic concerns for America. The Pentagon favors a “monitor-and-respond” approach, deploying a 3-E strategy of enhancing military capabilities, engaging with allies and partners, and exercising presence through training and power projection. Rand strategists, however, suggest a disruptive exploitation of differences between China and Russia’s goals in the Arctic.

It is in the light of these prognoses that Trump’s statement on Greenland – a repeat of an idea he broached during his first term – must be seen. As a leader not averse to making pragmatic, advantageous deals for America with Russia (whose president he admires) and adopting a hawkish stance on China, Trump will likely take whatever steps are necessary to reestablish the Arctic as a bastion for America and the West.

American interest in the Arctic began only after the Alaska Purchase. But despite its icy isolation, the Arctic Ocean and the land surrounding it have attracted human habitation since the 9th century, when the Vikings crossed the Arctic Circle, settled Iceland, and explored Greenland. In the 12th century, Russia colonized northern Siberia, took control of most of the Arctic territory, and established fur-trading routes in western Siberia by the end of the 16th century. Around that time, European explorers sought natural resources and a northwest passage to Asia through the Arctic. Only in the latter half of the 19th century did the discovery of vast natural resources—gold, coal, diamonds, nickel, copper, oil, and gas—spur competitive American, Canadian, and Russian exploitation of the region.

The region is governed by international law, mainly the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). But the eight Arctic states – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the U.S., all of which have territorial possessions in the Arctic – are members of the Arctic Council, formed in 1996 to enhance cooperation and coordination. They are also signatories to a non-binding agreement, the 1991 Arctic Environment Protection Strategy. China – like Japan, Korea, India, Singapore, and Italy – has permanent observer status on the Arctic Council, obtained in 2013. Except Russia, all Arctic states are NATO allies, making America’s role in the region the more important, though only 15% of the Arctic is American territory.

In the early 1940s, the Arctic came to be recognized as a strategic location for bases, airstrips, and communications centers. The Second World War and the following Cold War intensified the conflict and the jostling. Russia, which refers to the Arctic as its second priority region, has the most substantial military presence there. It gets 80% of its natural gas and 20% of its petroleum production from the Arctic. It also lays claim to the NSR, the most navigable polar sea route, a claim the U.S. has rejected. Its population in the area, the length of its Arctic Ocean coastline (24,140 km, or 53% of the ocean’s entire coastline), its level of economic activity, and its nuclear assets and other infrastructure make Russia a formidable presence.

Greenland, the most immense landmass in the Arctic, has proved a viable addition to Alaska as a means for America to beef up its Arctic presence. American forces officially entered the island in the 1940s. In 1946, the U.S. proposed to buy Greenland from Denmark for $100 million in gold bullion. The deal did not happen, but in 1951, a treaty with Denmark allowed America exclusive jurisdiction over defense areas in Greenland. In 1953, America built the Thule Air Force Base (now Pituffik) on the island. In 1959, Greenland became part of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, a joint Canadian and American air and space security system.

Interest in the island waned in the 20th century, but it remains vital to the security of America, its NATO allies, and the West. In 2018, the U.S. Second Fleet, responsible for the North Atlantic, was reestablished. An American consulate in Greenland, closed in 1952, was reopened in 2020. As Walter Berbrick of the U.S. Naval Institute says, “Whoever holds Greenland will hold the Arctic….it’s the most important strategic place in the Arctic – perhaps the world.”

Arctic security concerns have heightened as China and Russia team up. It is feared that Russia may grant greater access to China, allowing it to develop a military presence. Canada recently announced two new Arctic consulates, in Alaska and Greenland. It is investing in Arctic security and has integrated five Nordic allies who are NATO members. Denmark is equally alarmed, and is increasing defense spending for Greenland.

During the first Trump administration, the U.S. signed an agreement with the Arctic Council in 2018 to enhance regional scientific cooperation. The following year, the U.S. blocked an Arctic Council statement on “climate change,” which could have been used as an excuse to undermine the West’s strategic interests in the Arctic.

President Trump’s return to the White House means that Chinese incursions into the Arctic will be thwarted, and the complex challenges of the Arctic will be better managed. Seward’s Alaska purchase was initially called “folly,” but in hindsight, it was praised. The urgent need to counter Sino-Russian designs in the Arctic will surely make Americans judge Trump in a much better light than they did Seward—now and in the future.