OPINION: Previewing US-Ukraine Relations in 2025

January 29, 2025 by Mark Temnycky

Republicans now control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. What does this mean for US-Ukraine relations?

Following Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony on January 20, millions of Americans will be curious to see how his second term will unfold. During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised to address US border security, immigration, the economy, and various other issues. Now that he has been elected and inaugurated, the American public will be curious to see if and how Trump delivers on these issues.

But the Americans will not be the only ones waiting to see how Trumps term unfolds. Thousands of miles away, millions of Ukrainians will also be preparing for the Trump presidency.

For three years, Russia has launched a brutal invasion of Ukraine. To date, one-fourth of Ukraine’s population remains displaced. Russian forces have killed thousands of Ukrainians during the war, and several cities and villages have been destroyed. Given the destruction caused by Russia’s war, many economists predict that it will take over $1 trillion to rebuild Ukraine.

Despite this devastation, the Ukrainians have held their own against the Russians. In addition, the country of Ukraine continues to exist.

During the three-year war, the Ukrainians destroyed one-half of Russia’s Naval Fleet on the Black Sea, and they destroyed two-thirds of Russia’s pre-invasion tank force. These losses have cost the Russians tens of billions of dollars. In addition, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, the Russians have sustained over 810,000 casualties, half of which came in 2024 (independent assessments conducted by the West have similar findings). Finally, the Russians have lost hundreds of billions of dollars due to international sanctions. Many military experts and international observers have predicted that the Russian Federation will be unable to sustain its war, given the magnitude of these losses. Despite this, Russia opts to continue its invasion.

That may change in 2025. Despite Ukraine’s ability to hold its own against the Russian Federation, and while most Ukrainian citizens still believe their country can defeat Russia, several political figures are now calling for an end to the war.

One of these individuals is President-elect Trump. During the 2024 US presidential campaign, Trump pledged to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine in a day. He has said that he has a “very good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he claimed he would work with Russian and Ukrainian officials to force an end to the war.

These ambitions will fail, however. Trump will be unable to end the war during his first day in office. First, Putin has said he is not interested in negotiating an end to the war. The Russian president believes that his country will be able to defeat Ukraine, and he is committed to a total Russian victory. Similarly, members of the Russian government have said that they do not approve of Trump’s peace plan.

Second, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said that they do not want to be forced into a peace deal with Russia as this would reward the Russians for their invasion. Third, a forced peace deal ignores Ukrainian voices. Ukrainians, more than any, want the Russian invasion to end. They understand the devastation and brutality caused by Russia. But most Ukrainians still believe that the only way to end the war is by forcing the Russians entirely out of southern and eastern Ukraine. Independent polling conducted by Gallup, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and The Conversation all found that 90% of Ukrainians support their military, and over 60% of Ukrainians approve of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Finally, several of Ukraine’s allies and partners have pledged their “unwavering support” despite Trump’s peace plans, suggesting that the Europeans will continue to assist Ukraine.

Following the collapse of this peace proposal, it will be essential to see how US-Ukraine relations develop. There are several senior US officials who have differing opinions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, Trump argued that the United States had provided excessive aid and that this assistance should be scaled back. He has even toyed with ending aid to Ukraine.

His running-mate and now Vice President-elect has agreed. Former Senator JD Vance previously said that he “doesn’t really care” about Ukraine. As a senator, Vance also voted against US assistance packages to Ukraine. With these two opinions in mind, the incoming White House may be reluctant to continue aid to Ukraine.

Trump and Vance are not alone on this stance. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson has also been critical of aid to Ukraine. For example, in October 2023, the Biden administration submitted a new proposal for US defense assistance to Ukraine. From October 2023 to April 2024, Johnson stalled the aid package. He said that the House should not be rushed to pass the foreign aid bill, and he also opted to delay discussions about the proposed aid. In response, Republicans and Democrats introduced two discharge petitions to try and force through the aid bill. Eventually, Johnson gave in, and the assistance was passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in the House (as well as the Senate).

Following these events, Johnson has said he no longer has an “appetite for further Ukraine funding.” Instead, he argued that Ukraine aid has been expensive and that the Ukrainians should negotiate with Russia. The Speaker also has two key allies who support his position. Recently, Johnson named Republican Congressman Rick Crawford to head the House Intelligence Committee. Crawford has been critical of US assistance to Ukraine, and he voted against the aid package in April 2024. Similarly, newly-appointed House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast voted against US assistance to Ukraine in April 2024.

Outside of these three individuals, most Republicans and Democrats in the House overwhelmingly support Ukraine. But with Johnson, Crawford, and Mast serving in three significant posts within the House, it will be a difficult battle between representatives who support Ukraine and those who oppose future aid.

Then there is the Senate. Unlike the incoming White House or some senior Republicans in the House, Republican leadership in the Senate heavily favors Ukraine. Having recently won the majority, the Republicans have selected Senator John Thune as the Senate Majority Leader. Thune has previously argued that the United States should continue to support Ukraine, and he voted in favor of the Ukraine assistance package in 2024. Furthermore, according to recent voting records on Ukraine aid in the Senate, Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly support the US-Ukraine relationship. There are no signs that bipartisan support in the Senate will end, and it is likely that members in the Senate will work with their counterparts in the House to try to persuade Johnson to change his stance on US aid to Ukraine.

Finally, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches its three-year anniversary, most Americans continue to support Ukraine. In a Gallup survey conducted in November 2024, half of the American public surveyed said that the United States has a responsibility to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia. In addition, 43% of Americans supported US aid to Ukraine (compared to 27% who said the US was sending too much aid). These polling figures suggest that most Americans want their country to continue providing aid to Ukraine.

In short, 2025 will be a critical period for the US-Ukraine relationship. Trump, Vance, and Johnson appear to oppose future aid to Ukraine while Thune has argued that the United States must continue to support Ukraine. Outside of these four individuals, most members of Congress in both the House and Senate continue to support Ukraine. This will likely lead to friction within the White House, House, and Senate.

Time will tell how the relationships in the White House, House, and Senate will unfold. But fortunately for Ukraine, the US government has plenty of bipartisan supporters who will want Ukraine to succeed. Ultimately, the US-Ukraine relationship will prevail.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.