Israel is Demonstrating How Deterrence Works in the Middle East

August 30, 2024 by Fred Fleitz

Israel has taken these extreme measures to defend its nation and people against existential threats to its security since last October. It has often acted alone and over the objections of its allies.

As threats to Israel have increased from all sides since the horrific October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack and the United States, under the weak leadership of President Biden and Vice President Harris, has become a problematic ally, the Israeli government has done what it had to do to protect its nation—establish Israeli deterrence.

This was dramatically demonstrated in the early morning hours of August 25, when about 100 Israel Defense Forces (IDF) fighter jets conducted a preemptive strike in Lebanon to destroy thousands of rocket launchers and a large number of drones that the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah planned to fire a few hours later against Israel.

Hezbollah scaled back its planned attack after the Israeli strike and reportedly did not fire dozens of high-precision missiles because it feared “the Israeli retaliation would be so forceful as to start a far longer and more devastating conflict than the past 10 months have seen,” according to the Times of Israel.

Just as dramatic was an Israeli missile attack on April 19, 2024, that destroyed missile radars deep inside Iranian territory and near a critical facility believed to be engaged in nuclear weapons research. The attack was in retaliation for an April 13 attack on Israel by Iran with a salvo of about 150 missiles and 30 drones. The U.S., U.K., and Jordan assisted Israel in shooting down almost all of these projectiles.  The handful of missiles and drones not shot down did no serious damage.

Although the Israeli attack against Iran did minor damage, it humiliated the Iranian regime because its military forces were unable to detect or intercept the Israeli missiles and drones. The Israeli attack also demonstrated the vulnerability of Iranian military, government, and nuclear sites to Israeli attacks and Iran’s inability to protect them.

Israel has conducted other major military strikes, including airstrikes against Yemen on July 20, 2024, in retaliation for a drone attack against Tel Aviv by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Since early 2024, the U.S. and the U.K. have conducted about two dozen airstrikes against hundreds of military targets in Yemen in response to Houthi missile and drone attacks against shipping, mostly in the Red Sea.  The U.S. and U.K. airstrikes avoided hitting civilian areas or damaging Yemen’s economy and did not deter Houthi missile and drone attacks. This was not the case for the July 20 Israeli airstrike, which did significant economic damage to Yemen by targeting the Houthi’s main port of Hodeida. The Israeli attack also destroyed a power station and oil and gas depots and killed at least 6.

Recent IDF raids and airstrikes in the West Bank were part of the largest Israeli counterterrorism operation conducted in this area in many years and were in response to Iran flooding the West Bank with weapons, including bombs for suicide bombers. Israeli diplomats told me on August 29 that the West Bank is currently a “huge threat” to Israeli security because of the large-scale smuggling of weapons from Iran through Jordan.

Israel has also hunted down and killed leaders of terrorist organizations involved in the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack and other attacks since last October. The most significant of these killings was when Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran while he was in Iran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president.  This operation deeply embarrassed Iranian leaders and led Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei to order a direct attack on Israel.  That attack, ordered on July 31, still has not occurred, possibly due to enhanced Israeli deterrence.

The April 19 Iranian missile/drone attack against Israel was ordered in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes against the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1 that reportedly killed two Iranian generals and five officers.  All of these military officials reportedly were members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and were directing Hezbollah’s missile and drone attacks from Lebanon on northern Israel.

Israel has assassinated other Hamas and Hezbollah leaders over the last few months. This includes the assassination in late July of two senior Hamas and Hezbollah military commanders in Beirut in the space of just 12 hours.

Israel has conducted these acts of deterrence in the face of constant calls from the international community to “de-escalate” and agree to a cease-fire deal with Hamas. The UN and the EU condemned the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria.  A UN official condemned the IDF counterterrorism operation in the West Bank as Israel extending the Gaza War to the West Bank. No UN body has passed a resolution condemning Hamas for the October 7 terrorist attack, the atrocities it committed against Israelis during the attack, or for taking 251 hostages.

The Biden administration’s relationship with Israel has been uneven and contentious. Although President Biden offered Israel his “rock solid” support after the October 7 terrorist attack and visited Israel to express his support on October 19, 2023, his administration has been far more critical of Israel for the Gaza War than it has been of Hamas for the terrorist attack or for its refusal to agree to a ceasefire. Biden has had heated phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu over the war.  Biden officials have pressured Israel to agree to a cease-fire deal in Gaza and not to attack Lebanon. Israeli officials have made significant concessions to get a cease-fire agreement but refuse to agree to demands by Hamas that would essentially leave the terrorist group intact and in a position to reassert control over Gaza.

Biden officials also have regularly called for Israel to accept a two-state solution peace plan and allow the inept Palestinian Authority to administer Gaza after the war ends. Israeli officials have ruled out both proposals as dangerous and unrealistic.

Israel has taken these extreme measures to defend its nation and people against existential threats to its security since last October. It has often acted alone and over the objections of its friends and allies. Israel has defended its security and people despite uneven U.S. support and unfair criticism by Biden officials over how it has conducted the war in Gaza. Although the war with Hamas has not yet concluded and there are still severe, looming threats from Iran and Hezbollah, recent events suggest the Jewish State’s defensive efforts may be promoting a new Israeli deterrence that will improve its security.

However, I fear such an improvement in security may be temporary since Israel’s enemies will regroup and prepare more attacks. A lasting improvement in Israeli and Middle Eastern security will only occur when America has a strong new president who reestablishes American deterrence around the world and stands solidly with Israel. There cannot be any daylight between the United States and Israel in defending Israel’s security. This new president must end the dangerous and ill-advised Biden/Harris administration policies that undermine Israel’s security, like demanding security concessions to Hamas that Israel cannot accept, appeasing Iran, and calling for an independent Palestinian state.

This is another reason why Israel and the world desperately need Donald Trump back in the White House and why American presidential elections can have profound implications for global security.

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Fred Fleitz previously served as National Security Council chief of staff, CIA analyst, and a House Intelligence Committee staff member.